Let’s go back to the last few weeks of October 2016. Back then, a Hillary win, a big one, seemed inevitable. Polls indicated that; the sordid ‘grab them by the pussy’ tapes had surfaced; and, it was only going to be a few weeks before DJT would return to his arena- free to hawk his wares, hang with porn stars, do whatever, but with an amplified brand. That was his real goal, right? Remember?
We have been living with what happened in real life ever since.
Remember October 2016?
Lost in all the handwringing is a series of events late in October 2016 which had everyone guffawing at the time and pointing to a clueless Trump campaign. Because it was doing patently silly things. Like landing their plane in places like Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin- to name a few. Doubling down on messages of division. Making no aattempt to speak to traditional voting blocs. No one could understand it. What is the idiot thinking? Those are solid blue states. He is going to get killed in November. Etc.
It turns out that there was a method to the madness, and it had to do with Jared Kushner.
The Kushner Effect: Project Alamo
Yes, that Jared- the one who looks like the grown-up version of the teen in The Omen/Damien (the last horror move I watched, well, until November 8, 2016). He of the Kushner clan- staunch Democrats and significant contributors to that cause. Ivanka’s hubby.
Kushner helped deliver that stunning result the last time we elected a president- using technology and a secret initiative called Project Alamo, which he ran along with Brad Parscale. None of this was known at the time outside the Trump campaign- the scale of the operation became clear only after Steve Bertoni’s excellent December 2016 article in Forbes.
As the Forbes article shows, Project Alamo built on the Republican National Committee database but enhanced it significantly.
It used Cambridge Analytica and Deep Root to identify voter’s affiliation with their messages, and FaceBook and its tools to microtarget people with tailored ads- both positive to the campaign and negative in relation to Obama and Hillary/The Clinton’s.
Along the way they used Machine Learning to guide digital fundraising, and built a custom geolocation tool on Google Maps to tell them where certain types of voters were located. There’s much more- but all this explains why that plane was landing in those Midwestern states so late in the game.
Hillary And Technology
While Project Alamo raised $250 Million in four months, allowing the Trump Campaign to spend $70 Million per month on tailored ads to sympathetic voters, the Clinton campaign was basically running the Obama playbook- email solicitation, TV ads, interviews in elite publications.
Yes, they had money too, lots, and spent it—just not in the clever, technology and data driven way the Trump campaign did, thanks to Kushner and Parscale.
They also pursued that infernal ‘when they go low, we go high’ strategy. Which is rather like bringing Kale salad to a cannibal barbeque. Or a pea shooter to a knife fight. Pick your metaphor.
The Endgame
In 2016, Hillary got 70,000 less votes than Obama in Detroit and lost Michigan by just 11,000 votes; she got 40,000 less votes than Obama in Milwaukee County and lost Wisconsin by just 27,000 votes; she lost Pennsylvania by just 47,000 votes. Win those, and you have: ladies and gentlemen, please stand for President Hillary Clinton.
It’s simple to make a causal link between Trump’s win in 2016 and Project Alamo- and those ~85,000 voters in MI, PA, and WI who went with Trump.
The thing is, the technology used in Project Alamo has evolved at warp speed, as technology is wont to do- we now have Deep Learning algorithms, Artificial Intelligence powered bots, ever more sophisticated microtargeting techniques and audience slivers driven by Data Science, and Geolocation and Geodensity tools on steroids.
We can be sure that Trump 2020 is fully vested in these and using them now- not in September or October. Now.
A version of the Project Alamo is happening again. 45 is out there, doubling down on messages of hate, division, fearmongering, and whatever else he cooks up late at night.
Just read Trump’s lips- there’s a method to all the madness, folks and it’s driven by data. Everything he says is calculated and driven by Project Alamo, 2020 revision.
Do The Dems Have A Jared?
Frankly, it doesn’t feel like they do. Fundraising still feels like boring and archaic email solicitation, with a FaceBook ad here and there. It’s all ‘please send money’. The messaging seems to be horizontal and pretty much about go high, big ideas, Kale salad and peashooters- and not the brawl that’s already being waged.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Dems have their version of Project Alamo but in overdrive, and with the brightest and sharpest technologists and strategists in tow, focused on sharpening and tuning the air game and ground game.
I hope it’s something we read about in December 2020, with Dem poster children to replace Kushner and Parscale. I’m thinking of Santayana now: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.
But if I’m not wrong, or even a little right, prepare for another November evening like 2016- when that election party you’re hosting (Covid-19 permitting) becomes a wake, the champagne stays on ice, and your guests run for the hills faster than you can say ‘fuck, what just happened?’
Let’s hope we don’t do that again.
Writer: Deepak Kamlani
Image: Markus Winkler, Upslash
