As the US lurches to a monumentally important election in just a few weeks, it’s worth looking at what Tuesday November 3 might have in store for us, from the perspective of the backlash lens.
Backlash is defined as “a strong and adverse reaction by a large number of people, especially to a social or political development”. You could say that it’s the difference between a quantum jump and a softer pendulum swing.
Regardless, it translates to replacing what’s in place with something that is the near polar opposite of it. There is ample evidence that it has been the definitive theme of elections for the last thirty years, and not just in the U.S.: the UK, India, Brazil, and other countries have experienced many of their own backlash elections recently. Here, though, I’m going to stay with the U.S.
Its origins are fuzzy, but the Backlash Era in the US dates at least to the 1990s- when Clinton replaced Bush Sr., then W replaced Clinton, then Obama replaced W and finally Trump replaced Obama. Those outcomes represent some profound shifts.
Here’s what the Backlash Meter might mean on Nov. 3, going back to its putative beginning.
1992 Recap
A young, handsome, hip, sax playing guy called Bill Clinton upset an older, seemingly out of touch incumbent, George H.W. Bush. Some people will remember Bush’s grocery store incident as proof that Bush was not connected to average people; others will point to the stark contrast of his elite background versus Clinton’s rise from humble beginnings to Rhodes Scholar, Yale, and Arkansas Governor. Either way, we got Clinton in 1992 and he would be reelected in 1996 even with scandals in full swing (hold this thought).
Backlash Drivers: Youth, Cool factor, Life story
Backlash Reading: Medium
2000 Recap
Eight years of Clinton had given the country economic prosperity and social progress, but also lots of scandal- Bill’s long-standing inability to keep his zipper zipped, Monica Lewinsky, Whitewater, impeachment et al. His VP, Al Gore ran as the Democratic candidate but dealt with ‘Clinton fatigue’. Against that, the choice was George W. Bush- who promoted himself as family guy, businessman, Texan patriot.
With no small thanks to a wooden Gore campaign and the Supreme Court, we got Bush, even though Gore won the popular vote. W would win reelection in 2004 despite his unpopularity.
Backlash Drivers: Clinton scandals, Clinton fatigue
Backlash Reading: High (v. Clinton)
2008 Recap
If 1992 and 2000 represented backlash as medium shifts, 2008 injected quantum jumps into the mix.
By election day 2008, the U.S. had essentially been at war for almost the duration of the Bush Administration-ever since planes commanded by vile terrorists had flown into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and Pennsylvania fields on September 11, 2001. The dot com bubble had burst and barely recovered.
W was perceived to be stupid (wrongly, I think), and owned and controlled by Dick Cheney and the Halliburton crowd (perhaps so). There was “Bush fatigue” certainly, and a honorable old school Republican, John McCain, who sabotaged himself with his VP choice (Sarah Palin).
In contrast we had an upstart Barack Obama- who was inspirational, communicated hope and compassion, promised change, and represented a clean break from the 8 years prior. We got Obama, who would be duly reelected in 2012, even with Obamacare and an obdurate GOP controlled Senate and Congress in his way.
Backlash Drivers: W and cohort, War, Sarah Palin
Backlash Reading: Very High (v. Bush)
2016 Recap
So, then. 2016. In my opinion, it represents backlash at its most intense.
It is easy to point to Hillary Clinton’s long political history and campaign decisions- aka mistakes- particularly in ignoring Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin- and let it rest at ‘yeah she blew it’.
But that’s simplistic and it goes much deeper- pointing perhaps to ‘Obama fatigue’. At some point, the country seems to have looked at itself and said, ‘wait, did we really elect a black guy twice? No way I’m doing that again’.
Prodded on by a virulent opponent- who was smart enough to trot out his mostly blonde family as a deliberate contrast to the previous eight years- well, you know how that movie ends.
Backlash Drivers: Obama, Clinton’s.
Backlash Reading: Very High (v. Obama & Clinton’s)
Which brings us to 2020.
We have the incumbent, who has only confirmed every day what we have known or suspected about him all along, against Joe Biden- the antithesis of 45 on questions of character and decency.
If the backlash concept holds, and if everything we read is to believed, this one should be easy. And the backlash might be epic- resulting in decisive Democrat wins of the White House and Senate, and an easy hold of the House. It could be landslide epic for Biden and the Democrats.
But there are mitigating factors.
For one, we should remember that the last one-term President was George H.W. Bush, way back in 1992. For another, unpopularity seems to not matter much with an incumbent- there’s no way W or Clinton get reelected with that as a driver. Incumbents seem to get a hall pass for their first term.
Conversely, looking back at the results of the last 30 years, the incumbent’s personality, character, and overall makeup does seem to effect a backlash and usher in a near opposite new guy: see Clinton replaces Bush Sr., W replaces Clinton, Obama replaces W and Trump replaces Obama. Those are some pretty clear proof points.
So, if Biden does win, we will only have to use one word to describe the backlash driver: Trump. And the backlash reading will be Epic, the 11 level on Spinal Tap’s amplifier scale, especially if there is a Big Blue Wave through the ticket.
If Trump is re-elected, we’ll just have to accept that we are in a two-term era, and that backlash builds over eight years, not four.
We’re a fortnight away from finding out.
Writer: Deepak Kamlani
Image: Javier Allegue Barros on Unsplash
